SE Queensland's areas-most-likely

In one sense the south-east Queensland market should be struggling. The region is beset with problems, including water shortages, inadequate hospital services and poor transport infrastructure – the result of high population growth and bad planning.

But apparently no one cares. Or maybe the problems are overshadowed by the positive growth factors, as the economy and the population keep rising. And of course there’s the sunshine and the beaches.

Let’s not forget also that Brisbane houses are still much cheaper than those in Sydney, Canberra, Perth and Darwin.

But that is changing. The RP Data–Rismark Hedonic Index shows that Brisbane’s median house price rose 10.6% in the first six months of this year, the second-highest growth among the capital cities. And the median unit price rose 15.7% in six months.

“Brisbane is now well into the growth cycle,” RP Data says. “And despite the strong growth, the Queensland capital’s prices still provide a strong value proposition compared with other capital cities.”

Against that background, several areas stand out for me as locations likely to out perform:

Beaudesert Shire

Beaudesert Shire is projected to have the highest population growth in the Greater Brisbane area.

A long-term challenged for south-east Queensland is how to house its population growth – an expected one million extra people in the next 20 years. The State Government’s South-East Queensland Regional Plan nominates Beaudesert Shire (south of Brisbane and west of the Gold Coast) as one area that will absorb a big share of the growth.

A quarter of the residential land available for development in south-east Queensland is in Beaudesert Shire. Until now, the shire’s major industries have been beef cattle, dairying, poultry and horse breeding. But in recent years it has been the target for acreage residential. And now major developers such as Delfin Lend Lease are drawing up master-planned estates there.

Beenleigh precinct

Beenleigh is the kind of place everyone has been through rather than to; it’s on the way to somewhere, not a destination in itself.

But it’s worth a serious look by property investors. The Beenleigh precinct – including suburbs such as Mt Warren Park, Eagleby, Stapylton and Ormeau – will be examined increasingly by buyers faced with affordability issues. None of these suburbs is fashionable but location is a plus, and there’s evidence that their values are moving rapidly.

Beenleigh is a strategic spot because it’s on the Pacific Motorway midway between the Brisbane CBD and the Gold Coast. It’s not far from Yatala, where the 3000-hectare Yatala Enterprise Area has emerged as a hot industrial property precinct. The Logan Motorway from the west links with the north-south Pacific Motorway just north of Beenleigh, and the Beenleigh-Gold Coast rail corridor is undergoing a $180 million upgrade.

It’s an area with great shopping facilities, plenty of schools and colleges, lots of parks and three golf courses. Now major national developers are moving into the area. Immediately west of Beenleigh, three localities – Holmview, Waterford and Bahrs Scrub – are at the centre of large-scale residential development.

Beerwah

The recent property boom in the Hill Change areas of the Sunshine Coast made popular locations such as Maleny and Montville very expensive.

That puts greater focus on the railway towns at the foot of the Blackall Range, stretching for 35 kilometres along the northern line of Queensland Rail’s Citytrain network. Beerwah is considerably cheaper than the trendy towns on top of the range. It may lack Maleny’s historic charm and Montville’s cafes and boutiques, but it has plenty to offer.

Its appeal has been enhanced by State Government plans to expand capacity of the North Coast Rail Line from Caboolture in Brisbane’s north to the railway towns, a project costing $500 million.

Beerwah is likely to attract more government spending, as it’s been designated a Major Activity Centre under the South-East Queensland Regional Plan, which means businesses, shopping and services for a wider area will be concentrated there.

There are plenty of tourists coming through the area as well, because Australia Zoo (made famous by “crocodile hunter” Steve Irwin) is just down the road – and is undergoing a $100 million expansion.

Deception Bay

Deception Bay is known in some circles as Depression Bay or Desperation Bay. This perception is outdated but it does reflect the area’s downmarket image.

And it’s an area where the real estate market has yet to appreciate the value of its waterfront. While the Government has put considerable effort into making the bay frontage a fine area for people to picnic, walk and cycle, much of real estate with bay views is downmarket – and there’s only one café within coo-ee of a bay view.

But Deception Bay is undergoing rapid change. A government research paper titled Understanding City Fringe Gentrification says the area is being gentrified in ways similar to inner-city suburbs of many state capitals.

“Deception Bay’s coastal location has begun to be appreciated,” the report says. “There is a premium on waterfront land in south-east Queensland. But there are now limited opportunities to buy waterfront properties close to Brisbane at affordable prices. Deception Bay is one of the last places where such property is available.”

The general tone of the area has been lifted also by the ongoing development of the massive North Lakes master-planned community next door.

Ipswich region

Brisbane researcher Michael Matusik says Ipswich is emerging as Brisbane’s Parramatta as the number of major new projects has doubled in the past two years.

Ipswich City, on the Bremer River about 45 minutes south-west of central Brisbane, is ranked among the top 10 municipalities in Australia on population growth. The city is projected to have a population of 200,000 in 10 years and about 318,000 in 20 years.

There are almost $5 billion of government infrastructure projects targeted for the Ipswich region, including several highway upgrades and bypass projects, new rail connections, hospital developments and new schools.

The Ipswich Motorway, notorious for its traffic snarls, is targeted for a major upgrade, after years of argument between the State and Commonwealth Governments. Matusik says: “This vital piece of infrastructure is now the only impediment stopping Ipswich from reaching its full potential. This city has so much going for it in economic, property and cultural terms.”

The $12 billion Springfield master-planned community, which has been under development since 1992, is an example: it’s projected to be home to 60,000 people in 15 years. Springfield’s Education City became reality in February 2006 with the first students starting classes in the new University of Southern Queensland campus. Mirvac is building the Orion Greater Springfield Shopping and Entertainment Complex there; stage one opened in March.

West End

The hallmark of a real estate hotspot is having more than one decisive influence in its favour. The West End precinct, about three kilometres south-west of the Brisbane CBD, has numerous.

This inner-city precinct sits beside South Brisbane, across the river from the CBD and home of the South Bank Parklands, the Queensland Cultural Centre and the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre. It has these factors in its favour:

Lifestyle features: West End is a “peninsula” suburb, with the Brisbane River wrapping around it – so it is affected by the greatest wealth creator in real estate, water.

Urban renewal: Brisbane’s Urban Renewal Task Force has been a big influence on inner-city real estate, helping transform industrial suburbs into prime inner-city residential. The West End is next and the resultant transformation is well under way.

Transport infrastructure: The proposed Hale Street Bridge will connect West End with Milton across the river: Queensland Treasury Corporation gave approval in April for $245 million in funding for the bridge.

Government decisions: West End is well-placed to benefit from outcomes of the South-East Queensland Regional Plan, which seeks to contain urban sprawl by allowing more medium-density development in existing suburbs. The South Brisbane/West End precinct is one of the areas targeted for additional population.

Wynnum

In the bayside suburb of Manly, typical houses cost in the mid-$500,000s. Next door in less fashionable Wynnum, prices are $150,000 cheaper, while Wynnum West is cheaper still.

Wynnum has long been under-valued by Brisbane buyers, despite its outlook over Moreton Bay and its foreshore parks, about 14 kilometres from the Brisbane CBD (to which it is connected by rail services on the Cleveland line).

But the area has some government-inspired boosts coming its way. The Brisbane CityShape Plan released by the Brisbane City Council in 2006 nominates Wynnum Central as one of the major centres to absorb population growth over the next 20 years. Wynnum Central is nominated as a new hub for shopping, entertainment, big business and housing.

Proximity to the Australia TradeCoast industrial area around the Port of Brisbane gives Wynnum a boost, making it a logical place for people working in those industries to buy or rent. Longer-term plans announced by the State Government in March 2007 predict $6 billion in new infrastructure will be created as the Australia TradeCoast precinct evolves over the next two decades, creating 46,000 new jobs.

Terry Ryder is a director of hotspotting.com.au and a resident of Maleny on the Sunshine Coast.