Derby Day trifecta - just add water

Racing and Sports

Once again the weather could have the final say on a major spring raceday in Melbourne and Derby Day this Saturday, like the boggy biased Caulfield Cup Day two weeks ago, will have ramifications for the Melbourne Cup three days later if the rain arrives.

Track bias is bad enough and tempo bias is annoying but weather bias is downright guaranteed to cause both of those to be more prevalent plus add in bettors' droop when it comes to wagering confidence.

Flemington is the best track in Australasia when it comes to drainage and coping with adverse weather and racing but if the action starts being all down the crown of the track bettors lose that trust in judgement factor for putting their dollars in the hands of other riders.

The bettor has so many elements against them on raceday and nature is the one they know they cannot control, so if the middle of Flemington starts to come into play on Cup Day through the weather and wear and tear from Derby Day then wagering confidence takes a battering.

Always have a Plan B or a plan to wet-bet in case track conditions and bias could change in a barometric heartbeat.

Bookmakers welcome chaos and confusion by nature, so the only negative influence they see to a profitable day is winning customers.

A cooler is hired by a casino to chill the winning run of any whales or whopper-bettors, while at the track a cool wet day can bring bettors astray.

Some quick tips should Flemington endure some inclement weather for Derby Day, which will affect Cup week greatly too for all manner of field selection reasons and even gaining a big race start.

The list of horses running on Derby Day starting with the letter 'D' is not substantial but it is laden with swimmers and the best of them in separate races are as follows.

Race 3 -- Dizlago

Race 5 -- Descarado

Race 6 -- Digital Fortress

Race 8 -- Dubleanny

Race 9 -- Dao Dao

The number one saddlecloth could run riot on Derby Day too.

There will not be snow falling on Derby Day but the Peter Snowden stable looks set to star and swim and salute several times.

This is some force for Flemington fickle, weather or not.

Race 1 -- Skilled (consistent and one of only two in the opening event that has won at the mile.)

Race 2 -- Purple (the Ester Williams of the carnival and likes Flemington plus has won up to 2400m, so even with her famed flat spot should manage 100m more.)

Race 3 -- Divorces (second in the wet fresh up to More Strawberries so can paddle plus seems to be better suited drawn wide and uncluttered in the running rather than being trapped in traffic on the inner.)

Race 4 -- Soul (very underrated wet or dry and unbeaten at Flemington.)

Race 5 -- Kidnapped (won on dead ground and third up plus relatives have shown they can cope in the wet though G1 at WFA an ask but is looking for a middle distance. Two from three at the track and trainer runs this here, when he could have run the swimmer Purple but puts that in the Lexus, and you know he knows what he is doing.)

Race 6 -- Retrieve (proven swimmer and should be Derby favourite on a wet day, plus the owner is here to win and not for the weather.)

Race 6 -- Yulalona (will keep the stamina pressure on in the race and can handle the wet, as his formline and relatives have shown. May form a Darley forecast that is very pleasant indeed.)

Race 8 -- Beaded (the younger brother Rarefied from this stable handles the wet and this mare will too. She is two wins and a placing from three fresh up outings and at 1200m is yet to miss paying a dividend, with four wins and three placings from seven outings. In a hot field and running left-handed for the first time albeit up the straight six but not here to miss out, as her record shows of only once not paying a dividend and that was a close up fourth at G1 in the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) from barrier seventeen.)

Race 9 -- Demerit (did well to find the line out deep in the slower lanes last start to finish a good fourth, as was so far away and likely to end up last near the home turn on what was a very biased Caulfield Cup Day wet track. Fit enough now third up and weighted and drawn to win the last event. He raced here this meeting last year in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) and finished a close up sixth in what was a strong field and super form source since.)

One other name that is associated with swimming includes the Team Williams and Robert Hickmott trained C'est La Guerre, which is tackling the G1 Mackinnon (2000m) at WFA.

He may look outclassed on paper but look again as he is apparently an Aquarius, a water bearer, and he was beaten last start by weight, track and tempo bias at Caulfield.

His last start sixth in the G3 David Jones Cup (2000m) under 57kg came at a track he despises and against a track and tempo bias that worked totally against him.

He came from the back on settling and via the slower lanes out deeper that day at Caulfield in the home straight, so the run was heaps better than it can ever represent on paper.

The swimmer also meets the all the way winner that day Ginga Dude, which was helped by track and tempo bias, an inviting 2.5kg better off this time.

The statline says C'est la Guerre has raced at fabulous Flemington six times for just one placing but that is as misleading as meteorologists at this time of the year!

C'est La Guerre in his lone Flemington placing finished third in the 2008 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) behind the ill-fated Viewed, trained by Bart Cummings.

Team Williams cannot seem to shake Bart and he will line up So You Think and Faint Perfume in the WFA event, which suggest they will be lining up the old warhorse Zipping in the Cup on Tuesday at the luxurious weight of 55.5kg.

Zipping is the WFA warrior for Team Williams and after a super second to So You Think in the G1 Cox Plate last week, when giving that star 1.5kg under the scale, the gelding will now get half a kilo in the Cup should he run for an enticing 2kg swing.

The old fella has run three times in the Melbourne Cup for a fourth to Delta Blues in 2006, a fourth to stablemate Efficient in 2007 and a checked ninth to Viewed in 2008.

His three barrier draws in order for those Cups were nineteen, twenty and fourteen, so he never had it easy and the now $4 million dollar earner may go for age history on November 2.

C'est La Guerre in his five unplaced runs at Flemington finished fifth fresh up in the G2 Blamey Stakes (1600m) under 57kg, a fresh up fourth in the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) under 59kg at WFA, tenth in the G1 Turnbull (2000m) under 57.5kg, eighth in the G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) last year under 55.5kg and a fifth in the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) this year under 59kg.

He has never been disgraced at all at Flemington, so add water and you have a trifecta must.

This article first appeared on the Racing and Sports website on October 27. Reproduced with permission.